Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria |
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| Institution: | 1. International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, PO Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands;2. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK;3. Jackson Environment Institute, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK;4. Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT UK;1. Medical Entomology Group, Emergency Response Department, Public Health England, Porton Down, Salisbury, UK;2. NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Public Health England, Porton Down, Salisbury, UK;3. NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health, Public Health England, Porton Down, Salisbury, UK;1. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK;2. Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK;3. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK;4. Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden;5. Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy;6. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany;7. Department of Livestock and one Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK;1. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Division of Biosciences, University College London, London, UK;2. Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK;3. Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK |
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| Abstract: | Global estimates of the potential impact of climate change on malaria transmission were calculated based on future climate scenarios produced by the HadCM2 and the more recent HadCM3 global climate models developed by the UK Hadley Centre. This assessment uses an improved version of the MIASMA malaria model, which incorporates knowledge about the current distributions and characteristics of the main mosquito species of malaria.The greatest proportional changes in potential transmission are forecast to occur in temperate zones, in areas where vectors are present but it is currently too cold for transmission. Within the current vector distribution limits, only a limited expansion of areas suitable for malaria transmission is forecast, such areas include: central Asia, North America and northern Europe. On a global level, the numbers of additional people at risk of malaria in 2080 due to climate change is estimated to be 300 and 150 million for P. falciparum and P. vivax types of malaria, respectively, under the HadCM3 climate change scenario. Under the HadCM2 ensemble projections, estimates of additional people at risk in 2080 range from 260 to 320 million for P. falciparum and from 100 to 200 million for P. vivax. Climate change will have an important impact on the length of the transmission season in many areas, and this has implications for the burden of disease. Possible decreases in rainfall indicate some areas that currently experience year-round transmission may experience only seasonal transmission in the future. Estimates of future populations at risk of malaria differ significantly between regions and between climate scenarios. |
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