Seismic history and consistent seismicity: Evidence from southern Italy

In this paper a method is proposed to evaluate the seismicity level of an area in a given historical period, based on records of seismic events, source characteristics and intensity attenuation with distance. Also considered is the seismic activity recorded in southern Italy during the 10th and 11th centuries, seismic records being obtained from all available sources. To determine the level of seismicity, a key role is played by source characteristics, i.e. recording modalities and activity periods of recording centers. In addition, models of intensity attenuation with distance allow the assessment of the size of the area under investigation. This paper identifies the areas, in the 10th and 11th centuries, where major earthquakes (M 6.5) did not occur during periods of silence of sources, as well as those where such events cannot be excluded. For each area, different levels of probability were determined by applying the Cox linear logistic model to historical seismic data. The completeness analysis, in terms of area and time-span coverage, is a valuable tool to assess seismicity in seismogenetic areas. The reproducibility of the model for lower magnitude earthquakes (M < 6.5) is reliable.