Permafrost and climate in Europe: Monitoring and modelling thermal,geomorphological and geotechnical responses |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China;2. School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China;3. Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA;1. Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO-Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands;2. Department of Geography, Durham University, DH1 3LE Durham, UK;3. Department of Arctic Geology, University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway;4. Geological Survey of Norway, Trondheim, Norway;5. Institute of Planetary Research, German Aerospace Center, Rutherfordstrasse 2, DE-12489 Berlin, Germany;1. University of Bonn, Department of Geography, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53111 Bonn, Germany;2. Technische Universität München, Monitoring, Analysis and Early Warning of Landslides, Arcisstr. 21, 80333 München Germany;1. State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. Beiluhe Observation Station of Frozen Soil Environment and Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | We present a review of the changing state of European permafrost within a spatial zone that includes the continuous high latitude arctic permafrost of Svalbard and the discontinuous high altitude mountain permafrost of Iceland, Fennoscandia and the Alps. The paper focuses on methodological developments and data collection over the last decade or so, including research associated with the continent-scale network of instrumented permafrost boreholes established between 1998 and 2001 under the European Union PACE project. Data indicate recent warming trends, with greatest warming at higher latitudes. Equally important are the impacts of shorter-term extreme climatic events, most immediately reflected in changes in active layer thickness. A large number of complex variables, including altitude, topography, insolation and snow distribution, determine permafrost temperatures. The development of regionally calibrated empirical-statistical models, and physically based process-oriented models, is described, and it is shown that, though more complex and data dependent, process-oriented approaches are better suited to estimating transient effects of climate change in complex mountain topography. Mapping and characterisation of permafrost depth and distribution requires integrated multiple geophysical approaches and recent advances are discussed. We report on recent research into ground ice formation, including ice segregation within bedrock and vein ice formation within ice wedge systems. The potential impacts of climate change on rock weathering, permafrost creep, landslides, rock falls, debris flows and slow mass movements are also discussed. Recent engineering responses to the potentially damaging effects of climate warming are outlined, and risk assessment strategies to minimise geological hazards are described. We conclude that forecasting changes in hazard occurrence, magnitude and frequency is likely to depend on process-based modelling, demanding improved understanding of geomorphological process-response systems and their impacts on human activity. |
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