华北历史强震对济南市新旧动能转换先行区断裂活动性影响的数值分析

基于济南中心城区详细地质调查资料，利用库仑破裂应力变化理论，计算华北地区历史强震在济南地区各断裂上产生的库仑应力变化，并探讨历史强震对断裂活动性的影响。结果表明，区域内庙廊-焦斌断裂受历史强震影响较大，ΔCFS最大值可达1.1 kPa，卧牛山断裂北段ΔCFS达到0.8 kPa，济南-孙耿断裂北段ΔCFS可达0.6 kPa，这几条断裂的活动性可能略有增强，但ΔCFS未超过地震触发阈值(10 kPa)；齐河-广饶断裂受影响相对较小，仅在东西两段存在微弱变化。综合分析认为，华北地区历史强震距研究区较远，对区内主要断裂影响有限。

Numerical Study of the Impact on Fault Activity in Ji’nan Prior Zone Causedby Historical Strong Earthquakes in North China

Based on geological survey data from the central urban area of Ji’nan, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) induced by historical strong earthquakes in the north China region and investigate the influence on each fault in the Ji’nan area. The results show that the ΔCFS on the Miaolang-Jiaobin fault increased up to 1.1 kPa, which has the maximal impact. The stress on the northern section of Woniushan fault and Ji’nan-Sungeng fault increased up to 0.8 kPa and 0.6 kPa respectively. The activity of these faults may be slightly enhanced, but the stress changes are far below the seismic trigger threshold (10 kPa). The stress has only weak and negligible change in the west and east part of Qihe-Guangrao fault, and the impact is minimal. Comprehensive analysis reveals that due to the fact that the epicenter of historical strong earthquakes in north China is far from the study area, the impact on the main faults in this area is limited.