| 试用新"回归系数估计"法制作南海责任区的热带气旋路径集成预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢玲娟,万齐林.试用新"回归系数估计"法制作南海责任区的热带气旋路径集成预报[J].热带气象学报,1995,11(4):324-331. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢玲娟 万齐林 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州热带海洋气象研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | “85—906—05”攻关课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 在正确评估我国各种客观预报方法性能的基础上,应用新“回归系数估计”方法,将几种预报效果较好、操作方便的模式作为子方法加以集成,建立一个包括数值预报产品在内的优化的客观预报集成模式,经用１９９３年热带气旋样本试报及１９９４年台汛期实例试验,模式的性能稳定,预报精度进一步提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 回归系数估计 热带气旋 路径 集成预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/9/1994 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 1/6/1995 12:00:00 AM |
COMPOSITION OF AN INTEGRATED PREDICTION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS USING NEW REGRESSION COEFFICIENT ESTIMATION |
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| Xie Lingjuan and Wan Qilin.COMPOSITION OF AN INTEGRATED PREDICTION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS USING NEW REGRESSION COEFFICIENT ESTIMATION[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,1995,11(4):324-331. |
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| Authors: | Xie Lingjuan and Wan Qilin |
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| Institution: | Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology, Guangzhou, 510080;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology, Guangzhou, 510080 |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of appropriate assessment of all objective prediction precedures used in China and by use of a new scheme of "regression coefficient estimation", a number of sub-models were selected for merits of satisfactory skill and ready operation to int |
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| Keywords: | Regression coefficient estimation Typhoon tracks Integrated prediction |
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