| 长江三峡地区夏季旱涝特征及气候预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋文玲,杨义文. 长江三峡地区夏季旱涝特征及气候预测[J]. 气象, 2003, 29(7): 13-18 |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋文玲 杨义文 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 三峡二期工程气象保障服务技术开发项目02-01子专题的资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1951～2000年间三峡地区上游5个流域区间(乌江流域、重庆—万县、万县—坝区、嘉陵江流域、岷沱江流域)面降雨量资料分析了三峡地区夏季5、6、7、8月及6～8月旱涝分布特点和成因，探讨了若干主要环流系统对这一地区夏季旱涝的影响，建立了长江三峡地区夏季降水趋势概念化预测模型；模型思路清晰，方法简便，历史拟合率较高，2000、2001、2002年三年的预测结果基本是成功的。
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| 关 键 词： | 长江三峡地区 夏季 旱涝特征 气候预测 |
Characteristics of Drought/flooding in the Yangtze Gorges and Climate Prediction |
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| Song Wenling Yang Yiwen. Characteristics of Drought/flooding in the Yangtze Gorges and Climate Prediction[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2003, 29(7): 13-18 |
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| Authors: | Song Wenling Yang Yiwen |
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| Abstract: | Based on the area rainfall data in the upper reaches of Three Gorges (including five valley:Wujiang, Chongqing-Wanxian, Wanxian-baqu, Jialingjiang, Mintuojiang) during 1951-2000, the drought/flooding distribution characteristics and its cause in May, June, July, August and summer in the Yangtze Gorges are analyzed. The impact of some main circulation systems on the area is studied, and the prediction models of various basins area rainfall are established respectively. The model predictions are successful during the years of 2000, 2001, 2002. |
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| Keywords: | Three Gorges drought/flooding in summer distribution characteristics climate prediction |
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