Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, NY, United States;2. Institute of Hydraulic Research, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil;3. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, NY, United States;4. Department of Biology, Stanford University, CA, United States;5. Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, VT, United States;6. W.K. Kellogg Biological Station and Department of Integrative Biology, Michigan State University, MI, United States;7. Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States;8. Institute for Sustainable Energy Policy, Johns Hopkins University, MD, United States;9. Department of Biology, Colorado State University, CO, United States;10. Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, ACT, Australia;11. U.S. Geological Survey, NY Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, NY, United States;12. Institute for Computational Sustainability, Cornell University, NY, United States;13. School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, TX, United States;14. Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva, Switzerland;15. Agricultural Economics Department, Purdue University, IN, United States |
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| Abstract: | Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth’s largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions. |
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| Keywords: | Hydroelectricity Levelized cost of electricity Streamflow Environmental change Energy policy |
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