On the analysis of self-similarity of earthquake sequence and its application in earthquake prediction |
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Authors: | Chun Jiang De-Yi Feng Shan Tian and Hidemi M Ito |
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Institution: | (1) Seismological Bureau of Tianjin, 300210 Tianjin, China;(2) Meteorological Research Institute, 305 Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan |
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Abstract: | This paper has introduced the method of self-similarity analysis of time series into the analysis and study of earthquake
sequence, and then researched its application in earthquake prediction. As parameter of earthquake time series, we can take
the cumulated sum of the numbers of equivalent earthquakesQ=ΣN*, the numbers of equivalent earthquakeN*, maximum magnitudeM
max, average magnitudeQ=ΣN*, and the difference ΔN* between the numbersN* in two adjacent time intervals. The given method may be applied to analysis of long-period seismic sequences in different
regions as well as to anlysis of seismic sequence in the aftershock region of strong earthquake. For making quantitative analysis
the coefficient of self-similarity of earthquake sequence in order of timeμs was introduced. The results of self-similarity analysis were obtained for the earthquake sequences in North China, West South
China, the Capital region of China, and for the East Yamashi region of Japan. They show that in period or half year to several
years beforeM⩾7.0 andM⩾6.0 earthquakes occurred in these regions separately, the self-similarity coefficientμs calculated by using the above-mentioned parameters had remarkably anamalous decrease variations. The duration time ofμs anomaly depends on the earthquake magnitude and may be different from different regions. Therefore, the self-similarity coefficient
in order of timeμs can be considered as a long-medium term precursory index.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 455–462, 1993. |
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Keywords: | self-similarity coefficient seismic sequence in order of time earthquake prediction |
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