长三角高技术产业发展阶段实证研究

本文利用逻辑斯蒂曲线模型构建高技术产业成长模型，并结合高技术产业成长指数的测度，力图定量判断长三角地区5个行业高技术产业成长所处的阶段，确立高技术产业从初创期向成长期，从成长期向成熟期转换的临界条件。结果表明，近18年来，长三角地区高技术产业成长整体上可分为波动上升、整体下降和平稳上升三个阶段；目前除电子计算机及办公设备制造业已进入成长期后期，医药制造业、电子及通信设备制造业、医疗设备及仪器仪表制造业均处于成长期前期。并针对分析结果提出相应的对策建议，增强技术创新能力、加大资金支持力度、塑造良好的区域环境、扩大市场需求是实现长三角地区高技术产业持续成长的有效途径。

Empirical Study on the Development Stages of High-Tech Industry

This paper uses the logistic curve model to build the development model of high-tech industry, and combines the measurement of high-tech industry's growth index to judge the five development stages of high-tech industry in the Yangtze River Delta. The boundary conditions from the initial stage to the growth stage and from the growth stage to the mature stage are determined. The results show that in recent 18 years the development of high-tech industry in the Yangtze River Delta could be divided into three stages, which are the fluctuation stage, the decline stage and the stable rising stage. Recently, the electronic computer and office equipment manufacturing industry has entered the late growth stage, and all the other industries, including the medicine manufacturing industry, the electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry, medical equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industry, are in the early growth stage. This paper proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the analysis results. To strengthen technological innovation ability, to increase financial support, to build a good regional environment and to expand market demand are efficient ways to realize the sustainable growth of high-tech industry in the Yangtze River Delta.