青藏高原东北缘山地农户对气候变化的感知及适应策略——以湟水中游为例

以青藏高原东北缘山地地区不同海拔高度地理单元村落的农户为调查对象,进行气候变化、气象灾害的感知及适应策略等调查,采用感知强度公式及专家打分法分析农户气候变化感知以及所采用的适应策略,结果显示：1961—2013年湟水中游气候变化整体趋于暖干化,有84%的农户认为气候变暖,并对其生活造成了严重的影响;在不同海拔高度上的地理单元,农户对气象灾害的感知有明显差异,川水地区农户对沙尘的感知最强,浅山地区农户对虫害的感知最强,而脑山地区农户对连阴雨的感知最强;不同海拔高度的农户对适应策略的选择不同,川水地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性+保障性”组合适应策略;浅山地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性”组合适应策略;而脑山地区的农户则主要采取单一的“生产性”适应策略来应对气候变化所带来的影响。

The perception of climate change and adaptation strategies of farmers in the northeast edgemountianous of the Tibetan Plateau:a case of the middle reach of the Huangshui River

Farmers from the unit villages situated at different altitudes in the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau as the investigation objects, the investigation of the farmers’ perception and coping strategies for the climate change and meteorological disasters was carried out by using perception indensity formula and expert evaluating method. The results showed that: (1) In 1961-2013, climate change of the middle reach of the Huangshui River tends to be warm and dry, 84% of the farmers believe that climate is warming, which has brought a serious impact on their daily life; (2) There are obvious differences in the perception of meteorological disasters among the farmers from three geographical units at different altitudes, farmers from low-mountain area have the strongest perception of dust, from higher mountain area have the strongest perception of insect pests, and those from the highest mountain area have the strongest perception of rainy days; (3) The farmers from different altitudes have different choices on their adaption strategies, from low-mountain area adopt combination adaption strategies of production, life and insurance, those from higher mountain area mainly adopt the combination adaption strategies of production and life, while those from the highest mountain area mainly adopt single productive adaption strategy to cope with the climate change.