基于CMIP5模式安徽省植被净初级生产力预估

利用耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）中5个全球气候模式3种典型浓度路径（RCPs）预估结果,基于植被净初级生产力模型,估算安徽省21世纪近期（2018—2030年)、中期（2031—2050年）和远期（2051—2099年）植被净初级生产力及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：对不同模式在安徽省模拟能力的评估可知,气温以多模式集合模拟效果优于单个模式,MIROC-ESM-CHEM对降水的模拟能力较好。未来安徽省将持续变暖,北部变暖幅度高于南部,其中RCP8.5情景下变暖趋势更显著;全省降水量将增加,南部增加多于北部。随着气候趋于暖湿化,植被净初级生产力总体增加;与基准年相比,21世纪近期增加不明显,中后期显著增加,空间上南部增加总体高于北部。从气候变化响应来看,安徽省植被净初级生产力与降水量和平均气温均显著相关,并且对降水量的响应程度更高。

Projection of vegetation net primary productivity based on CMIP5 models in Anhui province

In this paper the impacts of climate change on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) were estimated in the near term (2018-2030), mid-term (2031-2050), and long term (2051-2099) of the 21st century using a NPP model driven by 5 general circulation models under 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results indicated that the simulation effect of multi-model ensemble is better than that of single model, and the model of MIROC-ESM-CHEM has better simulation ability for precipitation through the assessment of climate patterns. The climate of Anhui province will continue to warm in the 21st century, with the northern warming rate will be higher than the south, especially in the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation will be increasing, with the southern increasing more than the northern. As the climate tends to be warm and humid, vegetation NPP will increase in the 21st century, and the trend of NPP increase will be not obvious in the near term, but will be significant in the mid-term and long period as compared with baseline, and vegetation NPP could be generally higher in the south region than in the north region. From the perspective of climate change response, there is a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation and mean temperature in Anhui province, and the response to precipitation is more significant.