应变固体潮NaKai拟合检验及潮汐变化的映震效果

采用NaKai拟合检验和潮汐变化分析方法,对应变固体潮的整点值数据进行处理,得到NaKai拟合振幅因子和应变M₂ 波潮汐因子变化曲线,并对这些变化曲线进行判断分析,统计异常的起止时间、幅度、特征及映震效果,计算出R值,通过查表得到R₀值。从统计结果可以看出,应变(M₂ 波)潮汐因子变化曲线的异常特征较明显,每次异常都是在正常变化背景情况下出现的,异常有一个过程,异常信度较高,对应地震效果较好, R值评分较高;而NaKai拟合法得到的振幅因子曲线,其异常变化为突跳型,异常时间短。从计算结果来看, NaKai拟合检验和潮汐变化分析(M₂ 波)二种方法的R值均大于其R₀值。

The earthquake-reflecting effect of NaKai fitting and tidal analysis of earth strain tide data

The earth strain tide data are processed by using the NaKai fitting and tide analysis method. Through analyzing the curve of amplitude factor and M₂ wave's factor, some a nomalies are found. We studied the starting and ending time, amplitude, and characteristics of these anomalies. Based on the statistics, the R-value is calculated. Compared R with R_o in the given chart the earthquake-reflecting effect for each method is assessed. From the statistical results we can see that the feature of strain tide factor (M₂ wave) anomalies is relatively clear. Since it has a normal background and a developing process, its R-value and confidence level is higher, and the effect is better. But the amplitude factor curv e we got by using the NaKai fitting is not ideal. The anomaly's variation is abrupt jump type, and the lasting time of anomaly is short. The calculation shows that the R-value for the both methods is higher than the corresponding R_o, and the test is past.