矿产预测中的不确定性评估方法与应用——以广西大瑶山矿区为例

由于矿床类型的多样性,矿床成因的复杂性,控矿因素的隐蔽性和找矿信息的多解性,成矿预测结果具有不确定性,并常常因人而异1]。矿产预测评价是由多个阶段组成的复杂系统工程,每个环节都会产生不确定性,并且不确定性还会传播积累,致使技术评价的不确定性,最终会导致经济评价的不确定性。在找矿难度越来越大,矿业经济风险越来越突出的今天,对矿产预测评价中的不确定性加强认识,并尝试研究富有成效的不确定性评估方法已日显重要,它也是从根本上改进现行矿产预测评价方法的出路之一。本文先对矿产预测评价的特点作了简要说明,对技术评价的不确定性作了系统总结,并基于模糊集值统计的不确定性信息处理方法,提出了矿产预测中不确定性的一般评估方法,最后,以广西大瑶山西侧铜、铅、锌矿的预测评价为背景,对不确定性的评估方法作了应用分析。

Evaluation of Information Uncertainty in Mineral Resource Prediction and Assessment

Mineral resource prediction and assessment（MRPA） is a work finding the best way to explore mineral resource under the uncertain conditions.There are uncertainties in our MRPA due to the diversity of mineral deposit types,the complexity of mineral deposit genesis,the implicitness of mineral deposit controlling factors and the non-unique understanding of the exploration information.Because of the complexity of ore-forming system,multiple characters of ore deposits and limitation of our understanding level,there are uncertainties in our geological information we acquired about the mineral resource.On the other hand,MRPA is a course to deal with this uncertain geological information.And more,MRPA is a complex systemic project and generates uncertainties on each stage.Of course,the uncertainties come from the previous stage can be transferred to the subsequent stage.Finally,uncertainties of technology assessment will result in the uncertainties of economy assessment.Nowadays,mineral exploration is becoming more and more difficult,and economic risk in mining industry is becoming more and more outstanding.Hence,the only way to solve the problem is to improve our MRPA technology.So we must seek some means to measure the uncertainty.This paper discussed the evaluation of information uncertainty in MRPA chiefly.At the beginning,the authors tell something about the characteristic and the nature about the MRPA,and discussed where these uncertainties come from systematically.Then basing on the information processing method of uncertainties in fuzzy sets statistics,the authors gave the general evaluation method of the uncertainties in MRPA.At the end,basing on a particular MRPA job,the authors explained this general evaluation method in the set of Cu,Pb,Zn prediction in the western Dayaoshan,Guangxi,with simple examples.In this paper,besides given a compute method to evaluate the uncertainty,the authors also wish more and more people will pay attention to the uncertainty in our MRPA.