首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field,New Zealand
Authors:Laura Sandri  Gill Jolly  Jan Lindsay  Tracy Howe  Warner Marzocchi
Institution:(1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, via D. Creti, 12, 40128 Bologna, Italy;(2) GNS Science, Wairakei Research Centre, Taupo, New Zealand;(3) Institute of Earth Science and Engineering, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand;(4) School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand;(5) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1 Sismologia e Tettonofisica, via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Roma, Italy
Abstract:By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1 × 1-km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current contingency plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated.
Keywords:
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号