青岛地区台风暴雨预报方法研究

以地面影响系统为主要依据 ,使用天气动力学和统计学相结合的方法 ,将1 983～ 2 0 0 0年 6～ 8月青岛地区的 4 0次暴雨分为气旋、台风和冷锋 3种类型。根据预报经验 ,选取相应的预报因子 ,建立 0 -1权重回归方程 ,用于预报青岛地区未来 2 4 h的暴雨。对于台风暴雨 ,认为来自低纬度洋面的东南 (或西南 )低空急流是水汽、涡度的输送通道 ,它向台风提供了形成暴雨所需的水汽和能量 ,因此把它列为起始场条件。因子选取了代表水汽、位势不稳定、能量及冷空气活动的物理因子。统计得出 :台风类暴雨方程的预报准确率为 96%。用该方程对1 975年 6～ 8月进行试报 ,没有出现空漏报现象 ,效果较好

STUDY ON THE PREDICTION METHOD FOR TYPHOON RAINSTORM IN THE QINGDAO AREA

Based on the surface influence system, the combined weather dynamic and statistic method is used to divide 40 rainstorms in the Qingdao area during June to August, 1983 to 2000 into 3 types, cyclone, typhoon and cold front types. The relevant prediction factors are selected on the basis of the prediction experience, and the weighted regression equations are established to predict the rainstorm in the Qingdao area in the coming 24 hours. The southeast (or southwest) low level jet streams coming from the low latitude ocean surface are considered as the transport channel of moisture and vorticity, and provide the typhoon with the moisture and energy for generating the rainstorm, so the jet streams are taken as the initial field conditions. The physical factors representing moisture, potential instability, energy and cold air activity are chosen as the prediction factors. It is shown from the statistic data that the accuracy of the equation for predicting the typhoon rainstorm is 96%, and the trial preditions for the rainstorm during June to August, 1975 have a good result with no mistake.