低频泥石流特征及其预测初步探讨

同高频泥石流相比,低频泥石流更具有潜在危害性。近年来,低频泥石流的暴发给我国山区人们的生命财产安全、经济发展和社会进步以及山区生态环境带来了极大的影响。本文通过对低频泥石流沟实地考察以及对近年来我国暴发的约30例典型低频泥石流资料进行搜集整理,从其隐蔽性、活动性、规模和破坏性以及灾情等方面探讨了低频泥石流的特征;以茶园沟为例,采用灰色灾变预测方法,建立灰色灾变预测模型对其进行预测,经检验预测结果与实际发生年份一致,并且预测出2042年或2043年前后以及2095年或2096年前后茶园沟发生大规模泥石流的可能性较大;最后,针对低频泥石流的特征,提出了相应的防治建议。

DISCUSSIONS ON CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION OF DEBRISFLOWS WITH LOW OCCURRENCE FREQUENCY

The debris flows with low occurrence frequency are of more harmfulness than the debris flows of high occurrence frequency. This paper, on the basis of field investigation and material analysis about the typical low-frequency debris flows occurred in recent years, discusses the characteristics of low frequency debris flows. In order to further discuss the forecasting method of low frequency debris flows, the grey theory is applied and a grey catastrophe forecasting model was established. The Chayuan gully in Wenchuan county, Sichuan province is used as an example. The paper puts forward the corresponding prevention advices for low frequency debris flows according to the their characteristics. This discussion is of certain significance for debris flow subject in theory and for the hazard prevention and mitigation in mountain areas in practice.