关于利用行星际闪烁（IPS）观测进行地球磁暴急始预报的初步探讨

本文在分析行星际激波传播的空间特性的基础上,提出了一种物理模式加统计的预报方法。对1975-1982年间58个耀斑-IPS激波事件是否引起地球磁暴急始进行预报的结果如下:有无磁暴急始发生的报准率是77.6％,虚报率为22.4％;磁暴急始发生时间的预报准确性,大多在±10小时内。这表明利用IPS观测进行磁暴急始预报有很大的潜力和现实可能性。

PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF PREDICTING GEOMAGNETIC SSC BY USING IPS OBSERVATIONS

We have suggested a prediction method of the geomagnetic SSC, which is based on the propagating characteristics of interplanetary shock waves. The geomagnetic SSC during the period 1975-1982 have been predicted by using IPS observations, the rate of successful predictions is 77.6%, the rate of false predictions is 22.4%; the predicted accuracy of occurring time o'f the geomagnetic SSC are mostly within 10 hours. This shows the potentiality of using IPS observations to predict the geomagnetic SSC.