Avalanche prediction in Scotland: II. Development of a predictive model

The paper presents a method for predicting avalanche activity from meteorological data which is suitable for Scottish snow conditions. Two main types of avalanche are distinguished. Direct-action avalanches are the result of fresh snow accumulation and may release after approximately 200 mm of fresh snow has fallen over a period of a few days. They become extremely likely if a further 100 mm falls in a single day. Climax avalanches are the result of strength loss in the snow cover, due either to thawing or persistent cold. Thaws may produce an avalanche after only three or four days with maximum temperatures around 2°C. Alternatively, if maximum temperatures remain below ?4°C for over a week, and especially if cold weather persists for two weeks, slab avalanches of dry snow are likely to occur. Between these two types are several possible avalanche situations in which fresh snow accumulation is combined with high or low temperatures. Topography plays a passive role, and determines where avalanche activity is most likely. Free faces, smooth surfaces and slopes in the lee of major storms respond most rapidly to the onset of avalanche conditions.