Use of a particle-tracking model for predicting entrainment at power plants on the Hudson River |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Alan?F?BlumbergEmail author Dennis?J?Dunning Honghai?Li Douglas?Heimbuch W?Rockwell Geyer |
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Institution: | (1) College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware, 700 Pilottown Road, Lewes, DE 19958, USA;(2) Marine Biogeochemistry Group, Ocean Research Institute, Minamidai 1-15-1, Nakano Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan;(3) Romberg-Tiburon Center, San Francisco State University, 3152 Paradise Drive, Tiburon, CA 94920, USA;(4) Department of Environmental Studies, University of West Florida, 11000 University Parkway, Pensacola, FL 32514, USA;(5) School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Hawaii, 1000 Pope Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822, USA;(6) Department of Environmental Sciences, Northwest Florida State College, 100 College Boulevard, Niceville, FL 32578, USA;(7) Department of Chemistry and Marine Chemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA |
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Abstract: | A major assumption of the Empirical Transport Model (ETM), widely adopted by both electric utilities and regulatory agencies
for estimating the effects of entrainment mortality on fish populations in estuaries, is that the fraction of ichthyoplankton
entrained varies only in response to changes in water withdrawals, not to changes in freshwater flow. We evaluated this assumption
using a particle-tracking model to estimmate the probability of entrainment at power plants on the Hudson River during low
and high freshwater flow periods and comparing those probabilities with estimates calculated from the ETM. We found that freshwater
flow had a profound effect on the probability of entrainment. Both the number of river regions from which particles were entrained
and the probabilities of entrainment for particles in those river regions differed between low-flow and high-flow periods.
During high flow, particles spent less time in the grid box next to the intakes, reducing the probability of entrainment for
particles released in the river region of each power plant and the average probability of entrainment across all regions at
three power plants. The reduced probability of entrainment for particles released in the river regions of two power plants
was offset by higher entrainment for particles upriver of these power plants. Although the average probabilities of entrainment
across all river regions estimated with the particle-tracking model and the ETM were relatively similar for some power plants
at high flow, low flow, or both, the probabilities for each river region differed considerably between the models. The number
of river regions from which particles were entrained using the ETM was consistently undersestimated, resulting in probabilities
for regions where entrainment occurred that were biased high compared with the particle-tracking model. |
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