Fragility curves for expressway embankments based on damage datasets after recent earthquakes in Japan

The seismometer network of the Japanese expressway system was enhanced following the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Based on earthquake information from the instruments of the seismometer network, a traffic control is performed directly after the event because of the potential for damage to expressway structures. Expressways serve as vital trunk lines of transportation and are important for the restoration of damage-stricken areas. Therefore, earthquake-induced damage to expressway structures should be estimated as soon as possible. Expressway embankments were seriously damaged during recent earthquakes, such as the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake. The present study constructs the fragility curves of expressway embankments in Japan in order to estimate the damage distribution immediately after an earthquake. Damage datasets for expressways are compiled for the 2003 Northern-Miyagi earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake, and the 2007 Niigata Chuetsu-oki earthquake. The spatial distributions of the peak ground velocity (PGV) are estimated for these four earthquakes in order to evaluate the relationship between the damage ratio of expressway embankments and the PGV. Statistical analysis is then conducted in order to draw the fragility curves for expressway embankments. Based on the fragility curves, major damage that disrupts ordinary expressway traffic may occur when the peak ground velocity exceeds approximately 35.0 cm/s. The fragility curves constructed in the present study are helpful for predicting the damage distribution on expressways soon after an earthquake, which enables efficient traffic control and rapid disaster response.