年际气候变率的数值模拟

本文利用IAP GCM 20年的模式输出结果，计算了海平面气压、表面气温和降水的年际气候变率，并与观测资料作了对比分析，以考察模式模拟年际变率的能力。结果表明，模式成功地再现了观测变率地理分布的基本特征，这说明大气内部动力-物理相互作用过程对年际变率有重要影响，而模拟值的偏低则显示了模式中未包括的某些外界强迫因子如海温和海冰年际变化的潜在作用。

A Numerical Simulation of the Climatic Interannual Variability

The simulated interannual variability of the sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation is computed using the 20 years model output of IAP GCM. The results are compared with the observed data for evaluating the model's ability in simulating variability. It is shown that the model successfully reproduces the characteristic features of the geographical distributions of the observed variability. Therefore, the internal dynamical physical interaction processes in the atmosphere have substantial influences on the interannual variability. However, the model underestimates the observed variability systematically due to the absence of some external factors such as the interannual variations of the sea surface temperature and sea ice coverage.