西北地区短临观测前兆标志体系研究

对甘,宁,青三省区７０个台站,１２１个测项自正式观测以来的全部资料进行了整个时间域的处理分析,结果表明单测项短临异常对应地震的条件概率（信度）大多数是比较低的,只有采用适当的综合预报方法才能有效地提高预报水平,通过深入研究提出了三种综合分析预报方法,即“前兆信息量直接计算法”,“多因子综合相关分析法”,及“信息合成法”其中以“前兆信息量直接计算法”普适性,可操作性更好一些。

Research on Precursory Indication System of Short-Impending Observation in Northwest China

The result of whole-time-domain processing and analysis of all the data from 70 stations and 121 sets of observation data in Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai area shows that most of the conditional probabilities (credibilities) of monomial short - impending anomaly correspondent earthquake are comparatively low. The level of prediction can be only improved by using proper comprehensive prediction methods. Three kinds of comprehensive analysis and prediction methods are given after research. They are "method of directly calculating precursory information content", "multi-factor comprehensive correspondence analysis method"and "information synthesis method". Among them, the first one is better for practical use.