Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA;2. Independent Consultant, Washington, D.C. 20002, USA;1. Department of Planning and Geography, Curtin University, Perth, Australia;2. The Cocoa Coconut Institute, Tavilo, East New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea;3. NGIP-Agmark, Kokopo, East New Britain Province, Papua New Guinea;1. Ecodynamics Group, Department of Earth, Environmental and Physical Sciences, University of Siena, Pian dei Mantellini 44, 53100 Siena, Italy;2. Department of Zoology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College, University of Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland;3. Department of Economics & Statistics, University of Siena, Piazza San Francesco 7, 53100 Siena, Italy;4. Department of Business and Quantitative Studies, University of Naples “Parthenope”, Via Generale Parisi 13, 80132 Naples, Italy;5. Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Denver, 2199 S. University Blvd, Denver, CO 80208, United States;6. School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Campus, Adelaide, SA 5095, Australia;1. Department of Family and Social Medicine, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA;2. Department of Health Sciences, Lehman College, City University of New York, Bronx, NY, USA;3. City University of New York School of Public Health at Hunter College, New York, NY, USA;4. Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA;1. Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi-6205, Bangladesh;2. School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia;3. Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa;1. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark and Department of Economics and Finance, University of Bio-Bio, Chile;2. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark;3. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark and UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland |
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| Abstract: | In the context of a changing climate, there is an urgent need to better understand the impact that weather disturbances have on food affordability in the developing world. While the influence of international markets on local food markets has received considerable attention, in contrast, the potential influence of weather disturbances on local food markets has received much less attention. In fact, local weather disturbances may have an adverse impact on the poorest households in developing countries. Here we quantify the short-run impact of both weather disturbances as well as international price changes on monthly food prices across 554 local commodity markets in 51 countries during the period between 2008 and 2012. We find that almost 20% of local market prices were affected by domestic weather disturbances in the short run, 9% by international price changes and 4% by both domestic weather disturbances and international price changes during the period. An improved understanding of the magnitude and relative importance of weather disturbances and international price changes on rural economies will inform public policies that are designed to mitigate the impact of adverse weather disturbances. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Food security Food prices NDVI |
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