2010年夏季北极海冰数值预报试验

为保障我国第四次北极科学考察的顺利开展，于2010年6～8月开展了北极海冰预报预测服务。预报试验基于MITgcm （麻省理工学院通用环流模式），以NCEP GFS（美国国家环境预测中心全球预报系统）资料为大气强迫，初始化分别使用美国冰雪中心SSM/I（专用微波成像仪）或德国不莱梅大学AMSR-E（地球观测系统先进微波扫描辐射计）北极海冰密集度卫星资料。对2010年6～8月预报结果的初步评估表明，预报结果同卫星观测资料比较一致。在发生快速海冰变化的太平洋扇区，预报结果优于惯性预报，表明模式具有较好的局地海冰数值预报能力。

ARCTIC SEA ICE FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS IN THE SUMMER OF 2010

In an effort to support the Chinese Arctic Research Expedition in the summer of 2010,the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments were conducted.A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model(MITgcm) was chosen as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean.The numerical weather prediction of the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System(NCEP GFS) was chosen as the atmospheric forcing,and two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products were tested as initialization:(1) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS(AMSR-E) and(2) the Special Sensor Microwave Imager(SSM/I).Forecast skill assessments of the sea ice concentration fields from these numerical experiments are presented.