改进的方差分析在电离层TEC短期预报中的应用

本文在研究了目前存在方法的基础上,将数理统计中的方差分析周期叠加外推法应用于电离层短期预报,并对其作了改进。采用IGS提供的电离层TEC数据作为原始数据比较了该方法改进前后的预报精度,分别利用中国区域内不同地理位置的40天的数据进行分析预报,预报结果显示改进后的方法预报精度可达到1.1TECU左右,优于改进前。改进后的预报效果依然与经纬度有关,在中国区域内随着纬度的减小、经度的增加,预报精度会降低。通过与目前常用方法比较分析,该方法预报结果精度较高、所需计算参数少、简单易行,可以较好地应用于电离层短期预报。

Application of improved analysis of variance to ionospheric TEC short-term forecast

Based on the present research methods,this article applied the statistics method,superposition analysis of periodical wave variance,to short-term forecast of the ionospheric TEC and improved it.The forecast precision of original method and the improved were compared with the ionospheric TEC as original data provided by IGS,and forecasted TEC using the 40 days’ data of different geographical positions respectively in China area.The forecast results showed that the best forecast precision of the improved method could reach to 1.1TECU,better than the original method.The improved forecast precision is still related to longitude and latitude,which is directly proportional to longitude and indirectly proportional to latitude.Through comparative analysis with the current methods,it was indicated that the method could be well applied to the ionosphere short-term prediction with the advantage of higher precision,fewer parameters and simpler calculation.