澜沧江水资源系统变化与大湄公河次区域合作的关联分析

针对澜沧江-湄公河水资源系统变化的跨境影响这一受到国际社会，特别是下游国关注的问题，结合流域各国水需求及区域性协定之规定，对比分析澜沧江大坝建设后对径流的影响，发现：（1）年出境水量呈小幅增长趋势，总体上有利于下游水资源利用；（2）个别年份枯季出境水量明显减少的主要原因是降水少和个别电站运行失误所致，电站本质上不会对下游用水和生态产生实质性危害；（3）出境水量变化主要对下游中上段产生明显影响，越往下游影响力越小；（4）出境水质稳定。建议：尽早制定流域综合规划和国际水分配方案；合理调整水库运行方案，避免出境水量或水位的大幅变化，减少跨境负面影响，维护区域合作。

Analysis on the Changes of Water Resource System of the Lancang River and its Impacts to Great Mekong Sub-regional Cooperation

To the Lancang-Mekong River Basin,the issues on the transboundary ecological security are concerned strongly by international societies,specially by the downstream states,specially on the transboundary impacts by the water system changes along the mainstream of the Lancang River.On the base of the demands of water resource uses of each of the watershed states,and the objectives of maintaining mainstream water quantity and water level in Mekong River Basin,the water changes are analyzed,the results are:(1) the annual runoff is getting increase with small degree,so in general the advantage benefits are larger than the negative impacts by the dams;(2) the monthly runoff in dry season in few years are reduced in evidence which are caused mainly by few precipitation in dry years and the mis-operation of the individual reservoir,but in essential,the existing cascade hydropower stations will not cause substantial/significant harms to the Lower Mekong in dry season;(3) the obvious impacts by the water changes from the Lancang River are focus on the upstream(above Vientiane) at the Lower-Mekong,some impacts extends to the downstream in dry season,but the degree is getting weak;(4) the water quality out of the boundary keeps stabilization.Some suggestions are:(1) reasonable adjust the operation scheme of the reservoirs to avoid the extremely changes of the water flow and the water level;(2) to formulate the complex water resource planning of the watershed as soon as possible;(3) to formulate the scheme of the sharing transboundary water resource distribution.