天山北坡内陆河流域山地-平原绿洲和荒漠气候变化差异分析——以三工河流域为例

对中国天山北坡三工河流域山地、绿洲、荒漠不同下垫面区域1961-2007年气象资料序列进行了分析, 结果表明: 近50 a平原绿洲区平均温度以0.3 ℃·(10a)~(-1) 趋势上升;流域山区增温趋势较慢, 平均每10 a以0.17 ℃的趋势增温, 但本世纪初增温速率加快, 绿洲区和山区分别增加0.7 ℃和 0.5 ℃. 流域CO_2浓度和CH_4浓度持续上升, 且高于全球平均水平.原绿洲区1987-2007年比1961-1986年平均降水量偏多35%;山区降水量平均每10 a增加速率和绿洲区基本一致, 但波动较大, 20世纪80年代降水增加较显著, 90年代降水量减少到70年代水平, 本世纪初降水量显著增加. 气候变化序列用Mann-Kendall方法检验认为, 山区温度和降水没有达到突变水平, 平原绿洲区降水在1984年发生了由低向高的突变, 温度在1995年发生了由低向高的突变. 夏季荒漠空气相对湿度、太阳辐射量均小于绿洲, 但温度却始终高于绿洲, 绿洲"湿岛效应"和"冷岛效应"特征明显. 荒漠-绿洲温差有3 h、 20 h的主要周期, 温差突变一般发生在凌晨.

Discrepancy Analysis of the Climate Changes among Mountain, Plain, Oasis and Desert in an Inland River Basin in the Northern Slopes of the Tianshan Mountains-A Case Study in the Sangong River Basin

In this paper, the meteorological data during 1961-2007 of different underlying surfaces on mountain-oasis-desert in the north slopes of Tianshan Mountains are analyzed. Results show that, during the approximate fifty years, the mean temperature increased 0.30 ℃ per ten years in plain of Sangong River basin;the warming rate of mean temperature inereased 0.17 ℃ per ten years in mountain area, which is lower than that in plain area. The warming rate of mean temperature speeds rapidly at the beginning of this century, with an increase of 0.7 ℃ and 0.5 ℃ in oasis and mountain areas, respectively. Concentrations of CO_2 and CH_4 in the area are increasing more rapidly and higher than the average over the globe. The precipitation in plain of Sangong River basin from 1987 to 2007 increased 35% as compared with that from 1961 to 1986;The increasing rate of precipitation per ten years in mountain area of Sangong River basin basically remained the same as in oasis area, but had a sharp undulation. It increased pronouncedly in the 1980s, and then decreased in the 1990s down to the level of the 1970s. In plain area, precipitation had an abrupt change in 1983 from low to high, and temperature had an abrupt change in 1995 from low to high, reaching the level derived from the abrupt test of Mann-Kendall means. The solar radiation and relative humidity in desert is always lower than that in oasis, but the temperature in desert is higher than that in oasis. Oasis characterized by both wet Island effect and cold island effect. According to wavelet analysis, the temperature differences in desert and oasis fluctuate with periods of three hours and 20 hours, and the abrupt change occurred always at the morning.