基于系统动力学的新冠肺炎疫情影响北京经济发展的模拟仿真分析

运用系统动力学方法，以北京市为例，通过多情景设置模拟COVID-19疫情对北京经济发展的影响；并对不同政策干预效果进行仿真分析。研究表明：① 分行业来看，COVID-19疫情对交通运输业的直接影响来自于出行管制，需求锐减和相关限制措施导致行业在短期内增长乏力；租赁与商务服务业需求不会随着疫情管控措施解除而立刻增加，行业复苏有一定的时滞；受其他行业复苏延迟影响，金融业发展的低迷时期会更长；复工复产的有序推进加速了工业和建筑业发展，有利于增强其对保持经济稳定的贡献。② 从整体来看，新冠肺炎疫情暴发在短期内使得北京经济下行压力增大，各种管制措施出台和需求萎缩会进一步降低经济增速。然而，随着疫情蔓延得到有效遏制和复工复产步伐加快，COVID-19疫情对北京经济发展的不利冲击会大幅降低。③ 从政策干预效果来看，解除企业生产和经营活动限制所引起城市经济发展水平的提升幅度大于财政对相关产业的补贴；而2种政策组合干预会进一步降低因COVID-19疫情暴发而对经济带来的不利影响，避免经济出现滑坡。模拟结果符合北京市2020年经济发展实际情况，验证了模拟方法的有效性。

Simulation of the Impact of COVID-19 on Beijing’s Economic Development Based on System Dynamics

Affected by the epidemic of COVID-19, China’s economy is facing severe challenges in 2020.This article studies the impact of the epidemic situation of COVID-19 on the economic development of Beijing through multi scenario settings by applying system dynamics model. The results show that: 1) by industry, the direct impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the transportation industry comes from travel control. The sharp decline in demand and relevant restrictive measures lead to weak growth of the industry in the short term; The demand for leasing and business services will not increase immediately with the lifting of epidemic control measures, and there is a certain time lag in the recovery of the industry. Affected by the delayed recovery of other industries, the downturn period of the development of the financial industry will be longer. The orderly promotion of resumption of work and production has accelerated the development of industry and construction industry, which is conducive to enhancing its contribution to maintaining economic stability. 2) Overall, novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreaks downtown pressure on the economy in Beijing in the short term. The introduction of various regulatory measures and the shrinking demand will further reduce economic growth. However, as the spread of the epidemic is effectively contained and the pace of returning to work and production is accelerated, the adverse impact of COVID-19 epidemic on Beijing’s economic development will be greatly reduced. 3) From the perspective of the effect of policy intervention, the improvement of urban economic development level caused by lifting the restrictions on enterprise production and business activities is greater than the financial subsidies to relevant industries. The combined intervention of the two policies will further reduce the adverse impact on the economy caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic and avoid economic decline.