长三角城市群生态安全评价与时空跃迁特征分析

采用“压力?状态?响应”模型、突变级数法和探索性时空数据分析方法，对长三角城市群26市生态安全状况进行定量测度和定性评价，分析了各城市生态安全空间格局和时空跃迁的演变特征。结果表明：① 2005—2015年长三角城市群各市生态安全状况有所好转，但大部分城市处于较不安全和较安全水平区间，总体生态安全水平不高。② 长三角城市群中部和东南部城市生态安全水平的空间结构稳定性更好；南通市具有最大的空间依赖性，而上海市表现出最小的空间依赖性；LISA（Local Indications of Spatial Association）时间路径移动方向的分析则表明长三角城市群在生态安全演变上体现出较强的空间整合性。③ Moran’s Ι 的空间凝聚度 $ {K}_{t} $=0.698，即不发生类型跃迁的概率为69.8%，表明长三角城市群各城市生态安全水平存在一定的格局变动但自身相对位置不易发生改变。探讨区域生态安全的协同增长机制，可为长三角城市群生态安全问题的诊断与调控提供理论基础，同时也可为其他城市群的可持续发展提供参考与借鉴。

Ecological Security Assessment and Spatio-temporal Transition Characteristics in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The PSR model, catastrophe progression method and exploratory spatial temporal data analysis are used to quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of ecological security levels of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. This article has concluded three findings as follows. Firstly, the ecological security levels of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has increased from 2005 to 2015, but most cities are in the relatively unsafe and relatively safe level, and the overall ecological security level is not in the high level. Secondly, the spatial structure stability of urban ecological security level in the central and southeastern regions of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is better; Nantong has the greatest spatial dependence, while Shanghai has minimal spatial dependence; The analysis of the moving direction of LISA time path shows that the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has strong spatial integration in the ecological security evolution. Thirdly, the spatial cohesion of Moran’s Ι is $ {K}_{t} $=0.698, that means the probability of no type transition is 69.8%, which indicates that there is a certain pattern change in the ecological security level of cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, but it is not easy for their relative position to change. This study discusses the coordinated growth mechanism of regional ecological security, which can provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and regulation of ecological security problems of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Moreover, it also provides relevant reference for the sustainable development of other urban agglomerations.