中国海洋生态安全时空分异及演化趋势研究

基于2006—2016年统计数据，以中国11个沿海地区为例，构建了中国海洋生态安全评价指标体系，评价了中国海洋生态安全时空分异的状况，基于标准差椭圆分析了中国海洋生态安全格局重心转移的状况，最后运用Hurst指数进行了中国海洋生态安全演化趋势的研究。结果显示：在2006—2016年，中国海洋生态安全状况总体呈上升的趋势，海洋生态安全指数均值逐年增加，由0.346 2增加到0.421 0，增长率为21.6%。中国海洋生态安全整体具有阶段性。中国海洋生态安全区域差异呈现逐年扩大的趋势。在空间格局上，中国海洋生态安全整体状况良好，且大致呈现出“以上海为中心南北对称”的空间分布特征。中国海洋生态安全重心变化幅度较小，基本在31°10′N附近南北偏移，呈现以上海为重心的南北偏移，北移的趋势较南移相对明显。在演化趋势上，中国海洋生态安全以很弱的反持续性为主，Hurst指数总体位于?2~2等级，整体变化幅度相对较小，演化趋势呈现空间上的不均衡特征。

Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Evolution Trend of Marine Ecological Security in China

Based on the statistical data from 2006 to 2016 and taking 11 coastal areas (due to the data limitation, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan of China are excluded in this study) of China as examples, the paper constructed the evaluation index system of China’s marine ecological security, evaluated the spatial-temporal differentiation of China’s marine ecological security, and analyzed the shift of the center of gravity of China’s marine ecological security pattern based on the standard deviation ellipse. Finally, using the Hurst index to study the evolution trend of marine ecological security in China. The results showed that from 2006 to 2016, the status of marine ecological security in China showed an overall upward trend. The average value of marine ecological security index increased year by year, from 0.346 2 to 0.421 0, with an increasing rate of 21.6%. The overall marine ecological security in China has phases. The regional differences of marine ecological security in China are increasing year by year. In terms of spatial pattern, the overall status of marine ecological security in China is good. It roughly presents the spatial distribution characteristics of “north-south symmetry with the center of Shanghai”. The change range of marine ecological security center of gravity in China is minor, and it basically shifts from north to south around 31°10′N, showing a north-south shift with Shanghai as the center of gravity, and the trend of northward shift is relatively obvious than southward . In terms of the evolutionary trend, the marine ecological security in China is dominated by very weak anti-persistence, and the Hurst index is generally located at the level of ?2-2, with a relatively small overall change range. The evolution trend presents spatial imbalance.