基于PLUS和InVEST模型的渭河流域土地利用与生境质量时空变化及预测

生境质量是关系人类福祉和实现可持续发展的重要基础,对区域生态保护和土地资源可持续利用具有重大意义。以渭河流域为研究对象,基于2000、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据,应用斑块生成土地利用变化模拟（Patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS）模型、生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估（Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs,InVEST）模型预测并评价了土地利用与生境质量时空变化特征。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年渭河流域建设用地和草地面积逐年增加,林地面积略微增长,耕地面积持续减少;2020—2050年土地利用变化趋势同2000—2020年基本一致但剧烈程度显著下降,建设用地扩张趋势减缓,耕地减少幅度下降,草地面积占比超过耕地跃居流域第一。（2） 2000—2020年流域内生境质量两极分化趋势明显,低生境质量和高生境质量区域面积有所增加,中等生境质量的面积减少,整体生境质量水平呈上升趋势;2020—2050年生境质量水平继续保持逐年上升趋势但增幅放缓,生境质量变化强度下降,低生境质量区域面积逐渐减少,中等生境质量面积保持稳定,高生境质量面积有所增长。研究结果可为渭河流域土地资源可持续利用和高质量发展提供相应科学依据和决策参考。

Spatial and temporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Weihe River Basin based on the PLUS and InVEST models and predictions

Habitat quality is an important foundation for human well-being and sustainable development. It is of great significance for regional ecological conservation and sustainable land resource use. Therefore, this paper explores the changes in the spatial patterns of habitat quality in the Weihe River Basin, northwest China from the perspective of land-use change by analyzing three periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020 and coupling the PLUS and InVEST models to predict and evaluate future land use and habitat quality. In our analysis, we found that from 2000 to 2020, the areas of construction land and grassland in the Weihe River Basin increased year by year, the area of forest land rose slightly, and the area of cultivated land continuously decreased. However, we predict that the drastic land-use changes in the Weihe River Basin will decrease significantly and land-use changes will stabilize from 2020 to 2050. In addition, we further explored the spatial distribution and changes in habitat quality in the basin on the basis of the analysis of land-use changes. We found that the overall level of habitat quality in the basin was moderately high from 2000 to 2020, with a clear trend of habitat quality polarization, gradually increasing areas of low and high habitat quality, and gradually decreasing areas of moderate habitat quality. However, the overall level of habitat quality in the basin gradually increased, consistent with the increasing ecological improvement in the Weihe River Basin in recent years. From 2020 to 2050, the overall habitat quality in the basin will continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down and the intensity of habitat quality changes will decrease. After analyzing land use and habitat quality, we explored the main reasons for their change. We found that regional ecological compensation policies and socioeconomic development were the main reasons for land-use changes. Meanwhile, habitat quality was closely related to the spatial pattern of land use, with higher and more stable habitat quality levels in areas with high concentrations of forested land and low disturbance of human activities, whereas the habitat quality tended to be poorer in plain areas where human activities are more intensive and urban development is more concentrated. However, it is worth acknowledging that the management and restoration of the ecologically fragile areas of the Loess Plateau in the watershed have led to a gradual improvement in habitat management, which is also an important reason for the overall improvement in the habitat quality in the watershed as a whole.