| 基于二项logistic回归模型与CART树的煤层底板突水预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘再斌,靳德武,刘其声.基于二项logistic回归模型与CART树的煤层底板突水预测[J].煤田地质与勘探,2009,37(1):56-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘再斌 靳德武 刘其声 |
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| 作者单位： | 煤炭科学研究总院西安研究院, 陕西 西安 710054 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)，国家科技支撑计划重点项目，煤炭科学研究总院青年创新基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 为定量评价煤层底板突水信息对突水过程的影响程度,获得煤层底板突水规则,采用二项logistic回归与CART树相结合的方法进行煤层底板突水预测。在煤层底板突水信息分析的基础上,建立了包含全因素的煤层底板突水预测概率模型,基于向后逐步回归分析方法获得了包含6项主要突水信息的精简煤层底板突水预测概率模型。通过CART树算法获得了煤层底板突水规则,分类测试结果表明,所获得的突水规则分类准确率达到91.67%。
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| 关 键 词： | 二项logisitic回归 突水预测 突水信息 CART树 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-04-17 |
Prediction of water inrush through coal floor based on binary logistic regression model and CART |
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| LIU Zaibin,JIN Dewu,LIU Qisheng.Prediction of water inrush through coal floor based on binary logistic regression model and CART[J].Coal Geology & Exploration,2009,37(1):56-61. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zaibin JIN Dewu LIU Qisheng |
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| Institution: | Xi'an Branch, China Coal Reaserach Institute, Xi'an 710054, China |
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| Abstract: | To quantitatively evaluate the information of water inrush through coal floor,and get rules of water inrush,binary logistic regression and classification and regression tree were used to predict water inrush through coal floor.Based on the analysis of water inrush information,a probabilistic predicting model which contained all selected fac-tors was established,a simplified model which contained six main factors was established based on backward stepwise regression method.Rules of coal floor water bursting ... |
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| Keywords: | binary logistic regression water inrush prediction water inrush information classification and regression tree |
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