区域地质灾害风险评估模型的初建——以广州市崩塌灾害为例

地质灾害的研究必须基于其自然和社会经济的双重属性特征,并把它作为一项系统工程来研究;风险评估是这系统工程中不可或缺的重中之重内容,也是新世纪地质灾害防灾减灾领域的前沿和热点.鉴于地质灾害风险评估研究现状,初步探讨了区域地质灾害风险评估模型的构建,即基于格网单元的地质灾害危险性评价、基于行政单元的社会经济易损性评价和基于危险度和易损度乘积的区域风险评估.同时以广州市崩塌灾害为例,采用该模型进行评估并取得了良好的效果.

Establishment of the Model for Regional Geological Hazard Risk Evaluation --A Case Study of Collapses in Guangzhou

The studies on geological hazards should be based on the characters of their natural and social-economic attributes,and should be treated as a systematic engineering.Risk evaluation is one of the most important parts of the engineering,and is also a frontier and hot point in geological hazard reduction fields.In this paper a regional geological hazard risk evaluation model is established and discussed.The model includes three modules,which are hazard assessment based on net cell,vulnerability assessment based on administrative cell,and risk evaluation based on the product of hazard and vulnerability.As an example,the model is utilized to evaluate the collapse hazard risk in Guangzhou and good results have been achieved.