金沙江下游宜宾-白鹤滩段岸坡稳定性评价与预测

在充分调研和综合分析研究金沙江干流宜宾-白鹤滩段岸坡地质背景和岩体力学环境条件的基础上，遵循地质定性分析与定量评价相结合的评价思路，首先对已有崩塌滑坡体采用地质因素综合评判法和极限平衡法等综合评价其稳定件，在此基础上采用模糊综合评判法对岸坡进行定量评价。最后，在岸坡类型划分的基础上对宜宾-白鹤滩段岸坡的稳定状况作出分段评价预测。评价结果表明区内岸坡主要由稳定性好或较好的岸段组成，而稳定性差和较差的岸段仅占总段数的20．0％和总长度的19．4％。水库蓄水后大多数岸坡稳定性状态不会发生变化。在预测有变化的库岸段中，对水电工程的影响相对较小，“西电东送”重点工程区（金沙江宜宾-白鹤滩段）岸坡失稳的预测和防治提供了科学的地质依据．

Evaluation and forecast of bank slopes stability from Yibin to Baihetan of the reaches of the Jinshajiang River

On the basis of geologic background and rock-mechanics surroundings analysis in hydroelectric zone of the Jinshajiang River(from Yibin to Baihetan),we evaluated the stability of rockfalls and landslides,using methods of geologic analysis,limit equilibrium,fuzzy judgment,information and logic.We also evaluated the stability of bank-slope.At last,we evaluated and forecasted the stability of each segment.The result indicates that unsteady rockfall and landslide will not influence reservoir.