Uncertainty Analysis for Assessing Leakage Through Water Tunnels: A Case from Nepal Himalaya

Water leakage problems in unlined or shotcrete lined water tunnels are not new issues. In many occasions severe water leakage problems have been faced that not only have reduced the stability of the rock mass, but also have caused valuable water to be lost from it, causing safety risk as well as huge economic loss to the projects. Hence, making tunnels water tight plays an important role in improving stability and safety of underground excavations. The real challenge is however accurate prediction and quantification of possible water leakage, so that cost consequences can be incorporated during planning of a water conveying tunnel project. The main purposes of this paper are to analyze extensive data on leakage test carried out through exploratory drillhole used to define the need for pre-injection grouting of Khimti headrace tunnel and to carry out probabilistic approach of uncertainty analysis based on relationship established between leakage, hydrostatic head and selected Q-value parameters. The authors believe that the new approach regarding uncertainty analysis of leakage presented in this paper will improve the understanding of leakage characteristics of the rock mass, and hope this will lead to a better understanding concerning quantification of possible water leakage from unlined and shotcrete lined water tunnels.