Using a maximum entropy model to optimize the stochastic component of urban cellular automata models

ABSTRACT

The stochastic perturbation of urban cellular automata (CA) model is difficult to fine-tune and does not take the constraint of known factors into account when using a stochastic variable, and the simulation results can be quite different when using the Monte Carlo method, reducing the accuracy of the simulated results. Therefore, in this paper, we optimize the stochastic component of an urban CA model by the use of a maximum entropy model to differentially control the intensity of the stochastic perturbation in the spatial domain. We use the kappa coefficient, figure of merit, and landscape metrics to evaluate the accuracy of the simulated results. Through the experimental results obtained for Wuhan, China, the effectiveness of the optimization is proved. The results show that, after the optimization, the kappa coefficient and figure of merit of the simulated results are significantly improved when using the stochastic variable, slightly improved when using Monte Carlo methods. The landscape metrics for the simulated results and actual data are much closer when using the stochastic variable, and slightly closer when using the Monte Carlo method, but the difference between the simulated results is narrowed, reflecting the fact that the results are more reliable.