气候变化条件下水资源短缺的状况及适应性措施：海河流域的模拟分析

 运用中国科学院农业政策研究中心开发的中国水资源模型，模拟分析了气候变化条件下海河流域的水资源短缺状况及相应的适应性措施的有效性。结果表明：随着社会经济的发展，到2030年海河流域的水资源短缺比例将提高25%，气候变化将使水资源短缺比例进一步提高2%～4%。无论是供给管理还是需求管理的适应性措施，在缓解水资源短缺方面都具有一定的有效性。但是，多标准的评估结果表明，所分析的几种需求管理的适应性措施比供给管理的适应性措施的可行性更高。在需求管理中，采用既提高灌溉水价又提高工业水价的混合水价政策可能是最优的策略选择，采用农业节水技术为次优策略选择。

Water Shortage and Adaptation Measures Under Climate Change: Simulation Analysis in the Haihe River Basin

Water shortage under climate change in the Haihe River basin and the effectiveness of adaptation measures were simulated and analyzed using China's Water Simulation Model. It shows that, with socio-economic development, water shortage in the Haihe River basin will increase by 25% in 2030, and climate change will further increase the shortage in water resources by 2%-4%. Both supply management measures and demand management measures can play important roles in mitigating water shortage. However, based on the multi-criteria assessment results, it is more feasible to implement demand management measures than supply management measures. For demand managements, the best policy is the mix water price policy through increasing both irrigation and industry water prices, and the next is adopting agricultural water-saving technology.