Hydroclimatic modelling of local sea level rise and its projection in future

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis temperature dataset in the period of 1948–2014, the temperature contrast between the Arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift is compared. An index measuring the temperature contrast is defined as the difference between the Arctic zone (70° N–90° N) and the equatorial region (10° S–10° N). The variations of the temperature contrast can be mainly explained by the local sea ice variations through sea ice–albedo–temperature feedback before 1976/1977 and the energy transportation to the Arctic together with the local sea ice after 1976/1977. The impacts of the Arctic minus equator (AmE) temperature contrast on the high-level westerly jet, and the polar easterlies show a significant difference during the two periods. A strong temperature anomaly associated with the temperature contrast in the two periods is found in the high latitude, but different patterns are observed at the high and low levels. The correlated water vapor appeared in the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent before 1976/1977 and moved to northeastern Canada and eastern North America after 1976/1977.