| 聊城市汛期降水气候特征及旱涝预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 张鹏 杨士恩. 聊城市汛期降水气候特征及旱涝预测模型[J]. 河南气象, 2006, 0(1): 33-34 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张鹏 杨士恩 |
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| 作者单位： | 聊城市气象局 山东聊城252060 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1961~2000年聊城市8个测站汛期降水距平百分率资料,分析了聊城市汛期旱涝气候特征,并利用模糊均生函数的概念建立了相应的旱涝预测模型。将建立好的预测模型用历史资料进行回代检验,并对2001~2003年进行预报试用,拟合值曲线与实况值曲线十分接近,预报结果也和实况基本一致。
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| 关 键 词： | 汛期降水 气候特征 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-6372（2006）01-0033-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-21 |
Climatic characteristic of Precipitation and the Forecasting Model of Drought and Flood during Flood Period over Liaocheng |
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| ZHANG Peng, YANG Shi -en. Climatic characteristic of Precipitation and the Forecasting Model of Drought and Flood during Flood Period over Liaocheng[J]. Meteorology Journal of Henan, 2006, 0(1): 33-34 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Peng YANG Shi -en |
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| Affiliation: | Liaocheng Meteorological Bureau , Liaocheng 252060, China |
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| Abstract: | Utilizing the precipitation anomalous percent data from the eight observational stations of Liaocheng during 1961 to 2000,We analyze the climatic characteristic of drought and flood during flood period over Liaocheng,and set up corresponding forecasting model of drought and flood by the conception of fuzzy function,We use this model to verify historical data conversely,and forecast tentatively in 2001 ~2003,the fitting curve quite approaches the curve of the real value,The forecast results are in accordance with the actual instance basically. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation during flood period Climatic characteristic Forecasting model |
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