1961-2010年气候变化对天津市采暖期和夏季空调期的影响

根据1961－2010年天津市逐日气象要素，包括平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、相对湿度以及风速，采用统计学方法分析了近50 a天津市的冷暖度日变化以及冬季采暖期和夏季空调期的气候变化特征，探讨了冷暖度日、舒适日数与区域气候变化之间的关系。结果表明：近50 a天津市冷暖度日具有相反的变化趋势，暖度日（HDD）显著下降、冷度日（CDD）显著上升，且暖度日的变化幅度大于冷度日，变化主要集中于80年代之后。冷暖度日与极端温度之间具有显著相关性。采暖期低温日数呈下降趋势、空调期高温日数呈上升趋势。采暖期冷不舒适日数呈显著下降趋势，夏季空调期热不舒适日数呈显著上升趋势，与同期平均气温之间存在显著性相关，且不舒适气候的随机性呈增多趋势。说明在气候变暖背景下，区域气候变化对天津市采暖期和夏季空调期具有重要影响。

Effect of climate change on winter heating period and summer air-condition period from 1961 to 2010 in Tianjin

According to the daily average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative hu- midity and wind speed from 1961 to 2010 in Tianjin,the changes of cooling degree days（CDD） and heating de- gree days （HDD）, climatic change features during winter heating period and summer air-condition period were ana- lyzed by a statistic method. The relations of the regional climate change with the I-IDD, CDD and the number of comfortable days were discussed. The results show that the variation trends of the HDD and CDD are contrary. The HDD decreases and the CDD increases significantly, and variation amplitude of the HDD is larger than that of the CDD from 1961 to 2010, especially after 1980s. The extreme weather is significantly correlated with the HDD and CDD. The number of low temperature days decrease during winter heating period, while the number of high tem- perature days increase significantly during summer air-condition period. The number of cold uncomfortable days re- duces during winter heating period and that of hot uncomfortable days displays an increasing tendency during sum- mer air-condition period. These variations have significant correlations with the simultaneous mean temperature. At the same time ,the uncomfortable weathers are in a randomly increasing trend. This suggests that the regional cli- mate change has an important effect on winter heating period and summer air-condition period in Tianjin with the climate warming.