地震迁移的统计预报

引言 本文利用马尔柯夫链的基本思想来研究发震地区的迁移问题。根据历史资料,计算出一重、二重及小地区的转移概率,然后以这三个因素作为预报因子和作出预报测度,并讨论了我国中部南北带五级以上地震以及全国六级以上地震的迁移及预报方法。 先简单介绍一下随机转移的概念。设有一个随机地(即偶然性地)运动的质点A,它每经过一单位时间就作一次随机的转移。

ON THE STATISTICS PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE MIGRATION

Prediction of earthquake migration from one region to another is based on the idea of the Markov Chain. "With the help of the historical data we have calculated the transition matrices for single-dependence matrice, double-dependence matrice and more small areas, while they are regarded as prediction factors and from this as a consequence the prediction measure are established. In this paper has been discussed the seis-micity migration of earthquakes M>5 occurred in North-South. Seismic Belt in central China and of earthquakes M>6 for whole territory of China. As a result of this discussion a prediction method is introduced.