| 基于时空轨迹数据的传染病传播风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 宫路,刘湘南,邹信裕.基于时空轨迹数据的传染病传播风险评估[J].测绘学报,2015(Z1):6-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宫路 刘湘南 邹信裕 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学 北京 信息工程学院,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用CRAWDAD提供的2009年10月份纽约市的出租车时空轨迹数据,依据复杂网络理论在城市交通网络中的应用,提出了一种方法求解出租车空间密度表示移动人群的时空密度变化,并用不同时段的平均速度表示人群的移动速度综合判定传染病在市内传播的高风险区域,重点分析了13时传染病传播的风险区位。通过建立空间密度与平均速度的二维特征空间,并将齐夫定律与能够遍历曼哈顿区的最大速度作为条件确定传染病传播的风险边界。结果反映在二维特征空间中,由最大遍历速度、安全行驶的空间密度临界值与数据上边界围成的三角区内节点对应的实际区位为传染病传播的高危区域。
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| 关 键 词： | 传播风险 时空轨迹数据 复杂网络理论 空间密度 |
Spread of Infectious Disease Risk Assessment Based on the Spatial-temporal Trajectory Data Analysis |
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| Abstract: | Combining October 2009 in New York City Manhattan district CRAWDAD Taxitaxi Spatial-temporal trajectory data,based on complex network theory in urban traffic network,proposed a method for solving taxi spatial density represents the spatial-temporal density variation of the crowd,with different the average rate period represents the movement speed of the integrated determination crowd high-risk areas in Manhattan district spread of infectious diseases,analyzed the risk of transmission of infectious conditions,establishment of spatial density and average speed of the two-dimensional feature space to determine the risk boundaries of infectious diseases by Zipf’s Law and a maximum speed of traverse Manhattan district.The result was reflected in the two-dimensional feature space,the maximum traverse speed,safe driving spatial density threshold and the data boundary enclosed triangle nodes corresponding the actual location to the high-risk area for the spread of infectious diseases. |
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| Keywords: | spread risk spatial-temporal trajectory data complex network theory temporal density |
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