Predicted effects from abatement action against eutrophication in two small bays of the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea has abnormal algal blooms during spring and summer which are effects of high concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and other nutrients in the surface water. Björnöfjärden (BF), a coastal area connected to the Baltic Sea, is selected for investigating whether aluminium treatment of sediments may reduce TP concentrations in the water mass. The aim of this paper is to evaluate effects from different abatement actions in two bays, BF and Nyköpingsfjärden (NF). The four investigated scenarios are (1) no action, (2) reducing TP from local sources, (3) fixing TP in sediments with aluminium, and (4) decreasing TP concentrations in the outside sea. Magnitudes of different TP fluxes during the different scenarios were estimated using a dynamic mass balance model, CoastMab, which has previously been tested against data from Swedish coastal waters. Alternative actions such as aluminium treatment and reduction of TP from local sources would result in no or scant effect on the TP concentrations in the two bays according to model simulations. The only action which would result in a significant expected decrease in TP concentrations would be to decrease TP concentrations in the outside sea. It is concluded that BF and NF are not suitable for studying effects from local abatement action because of large TP fluxes from the outside sea.