The short term response to eutrophication abatement

We compare results of a new model for predicting the short term inter annual changes in chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in lakes after reductions in total phosphorus (TP) to predictions made by least squares regression models. In the new method, slopes of chl-a/TP graphs (both axes in mg · m^–3) are depicted in frequency diagrams and used to extract information on the expected, short term chl-a/TP response. The short term response for nine shallow (< 10 m deep) and nutrient rich lakes to changes in TP was found to be: Chl-a = 0.49 · TP + 17.3, and for nine deep, P-limited lakes: Chl-a = 0.08 · TP + 3.5. If the TP-reduction is known to be greater than 10 mg · m^–3, the expected slope increases to 0.58 for shallow lakes and to 0.26 for deep lakes. The slope, 0.58, is 8% lower than the slope for the long term response calculated by regression for the shallow lakes. For deep lakes the slope, 0.26, is 2 to 3 times higher than that calculated by regression, indicating that reductions in TP for deep lakes give greater effects than least squares regression equations suggest. We have also calculated the reduction in TP which will give about 80% probability that a reduction in chl-a will be observed next year. For shallow, P-limited lakes this reduction is about 30 mg · m^–3 (5% of average initial in-lake TP concentration), and for deep lakes about 14 mg · m^–3 (35% of average initial in-lake TP concentration).