Grey Prediction of Seismic Activity in the Three Gorges Area of the Yangtze River

On the basis of historical earthquake data and recent observations, two grey models prediction of the next seismic active period and the maximal magnitude of earthquakes which might occur during that period are constructed on the basis of the grey theory. As predicted by the two models, the next seismic active period would last 79 years, and that the maximal magnitude of earthquakes occurring within the period would not exceed 5.2. These results provide an important basis for the assessment of earthquake risks and reduction of disasters in the Three Gorges area.