FORECASTING THE MJO INDEX BASED ON SSA-AR |
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| Authors: | JIANG Zhi-hong ZHANG Qin ZHU Hong-rui et al. |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044 China
2. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044 China;Wyle Information System, CPC/NOAA, USA |
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| Abstract: | Experiments of forecasting daily bi-variate index of the tropical atmospheric Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are performed in the context of adaptive filtering prediction models by combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with the autoregressive (AR) methods.the MJO index,a pair of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time series,called RMM1 and RMM2,predicts by the combined statistical SSA and AR models:firstly,according to the index of historic observation decomposed by SSA and then reconstructed by... |
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| Keywords: | Madden-Julian Oscillation singular spectrum analysis autoregressive model |
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