推进地震预测研究的战略对策问题

在简要分析了地震预测面临的主要科学难点问题的基础上，讨论了推进我国地震预测研究的战略对策，认为地震预测研究需要长期攻关，需要有长期的稳定的支持计划。目前推进地震预测科学进步的障碍点可能在于中期(几年尺度)强地震危险地点的确定，若在这一环节上取得突破，就为最终短临预报的突破奠定了基础，应强调理论创新和观测技术进步；坚持发展地震预测试验场；经验性预测与物理预测结合等。

The Strategic Countermeasure Problem of Advancing Earthquake Prediction Study

Firstly the article analysed most science problem of earthquake prediction facin g, and secondly discussed strategic countermeasures of advancing Chinese earthqu ake prediction study. The article considered that the earthquake prediction need ed tackling key problem and sustaining plan chronically; Now the holdback of a dvancing earthquake prediction science study may be the determination of dangero us sites where strong earthquake will take place in middle term (few years scale ). The base would be established in earthquake short term and imminent predictio n if the tache broken through; We should emphasize theoretical innovation and ad vancement of observation technology; and constructing and developing the test ar eas for earthquake prediction; meanwhile combining the experiential prediction w ith physical prediction.