中国煤矿城市经济系统脆弱性评价

在对经济系统脆弱性概念进行界定的基础上,从煤矿城市经济系统对区域可采煤炭资源储量的暴露－敏感性和应对能力两个方面构建了脆弱性评估模型,并对全国25个地级以上煤矿城市进行了评估;在综合考虑不同煤矿城市经济系统脆弱性特征的基础上,根据脆弱性得分运用聚类分析法划分为3种类型。结果表明:(1)我国煤矿城市经济系统脆弱性总体上随着城市发展阶段的不断演进而增大;(2)不同地域的煤矿城市经济系统脆弱性平均得分呈现出东北>中部>西部>东部的趋势,脆弱性高的煤矿城市主要集中在东北地区;(3)不同规模的煤矿城市经济系统脆弱性平均得分呈现出大城市＞中等城市＞特大城市＞小城市的变化趋势。

Vulnerability assessment of coal-mining cities&rsquo|economic systems in China

Coal-mining cities are confronted with a lot of serious social,economic and eco-environmental problems.Though extensive research on coal-mining cities are from many relevant disciplines,few are from the coupled human-environment system.There are obvious socio-economic and eco-environmental vulnerability characteristics on coal-mining cities.Vulnerability analysis framework in sustainability science has many properties of multi-scale,multi-element,multi-flow and multi-cycle,which presents a new research paradigm for coal-mining city.Based on a detailed discussion about the conception of economic system vulnerability(ESV),the essay establishes an economic vulnerability assessment model of coal-mining cities from the aspects of exposure-sensitive to and response capacity for the gradual depletion of the regional minable coal resources.The conditions of minable resources,industrial and employment structures,which determine their exposure-sensitivity to the depletion of regional minable coal resources,create an exposure-sensitivity index.From the angles of urban economic strength,industrial state,regional and infrastructure conditions,the degree to open up and economic conditions of urban and rural residents,it constructs a coping capacity index.According to the model,the economic system vulnerability of 25 typical coal-mining cities is evaluated and divided into three categories by principal components analysis.The results show that economic system vulnerability of coal-mining cities differs significantly in different development stages,city sizes and regions.The ESV of old coal-mining cities is generally high;the ESV of middle-aged is almost in 3 vulnerability grades,especially concentrated on medium grade;the ESV of young is low.The ESV of coal-mining cities presents obvious regional differences,including north to south and east to west.The high economic system vulnerability of coal-mining cities mainly concentrates on Northeast China.The average score of ESV shows a trend of Northeast>Central>West>East.The ESV of southern coal-mining cities is medium,while the northern region is distributed in three grades.The ESV of different size coal-mining cities shows a trend of big cities>medium-sized cities>mega-cities>small cities.The study provides some lessons for the vulnerability assessment of other subsystems and human-environment coupled system,and also gives a basis for relevant departments to adopt some policies for economic transformation.