中国2005-2016年地质灾害的时空变化及影响因素分析

基于中国地质环境监测院发布的《全国地质灾害通报》,本文从时空分布及影响因素2个方面,对2005-2016年的地质灾害发生类型变化、空间分布、成因、损失和避让情况进行了统计分析。分析结果表明：① 滑坡与崩塌是主要的地质灾害类型,分别占地质灾害总数的70%与10%左右,地质灾害总数、滑坡与崩塌均呈明显减少趋势;② 在空间分布上,地质灾害主要分布在湖南省和四川省,它们也是直接经济损失最大省份,四川省同时为死亡失踪人数最多的省份;③ 自然因素造成的地质灾害从96.6%降低到92.0%,人为因素造成的地质灾害则呈整体增加趋势,通过回归方程,每年平均增加量约为0.5%;④ 地质灾害造成的死亡、失踪和受伤的总人数逐渐递减,每年约减少75人左右;特大型地质灾害占总数的0.5%,却造成人员伤亡总数的25.7%和直接经济损失总量的47.7%;⑤ 避免的地质灾害与经济损失占地质灾害总数与直接经济损失总量的百分比,分别从2005年的2.8%与9.3%提高到2016年的6.9%与22.4%。通过回归方程,避免地质灾害数目与避免经济损失的百分比每年增长为0.7%与1.5%左右。通过对中国地质灾害的长时间动态监测结果进行分析,说明中国的防灾减灾工作取得了明显进展。

Spatial-temporal Changes and Influencing Factors of Geologic Disasters from 2005 to 2016 in China

China is a geological disaster-prone country. Frequent geological disasters cause a lot of casualties, and lead to serious economic losses and the damage of ecological environment. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance and practical value to acquire the occurrence characteristics and the loss status of geological disasters. Based on the "National Geological Disaster Bulletin" issued by Chinese Institute of Geo-environmental Monitoring, we analyze spatial-temporal changes and influencing factors of geological disasters in China from 2005 to 2016 in five aspects: the change of occurring types of geological disaster, the spatial distribution of geological disaster, the cause of geological disaster, the loss caused by geologic disaster and the avoidance situation of geological disasters. The results show that: (1) Landslide and collapse are the main types of geologic disaster, which account for 70% and 10% of total geologic disasters, respectively. The total number of disasters is obviously reduced, especially the collapse is obviously reduced; meanwhile, the number of the landslide disasters has some reduction. (2) For the spatial distribution, geologic disasters mainly distributed in Hunan province and Sichuan province and so on, and they are also the provinces with the highest economic losses. Sichuan is also the province with the largest number of deaths and missing. Serious geological disasters mainly occur in Sichuan province, then Hunan province, Guizhou province and Anhui province. (3) For the cause of disaster situation, the geological disasters caused by natural factors decreased from 96.6% to 92.0%. Compared to natural causes, the proportion of geological disasters caused by human is increased, which is about 0.5% annually through regression equation analysis. With successful transformation of Chinese economy and the method improvement of disaster prediction and prevention, geologic disaster caused by human factors may gradually be stable and few slowly. (4) For the event of disaster losses, direct economic losses have reduced from 4.09 billion Yuan to 3.17 billion Yuan, and the number of dead and missing people has also significantly reduced, about 75 persons per year. Geologic disasters of super-huge types only account for 0.5% of total number, which cause 25.7% of total number of injury and dead people and 47.7% of total direct economic loss. (5) In terms of the avoidance of geological disasters, the percentage of the avoidance number of geological disasters to the total number of geological disasters increased from 2.8% in 2005 to 7.0% in 2016, and the percentage of avoidance economic losses to direct economic losses was increased from 9.3% in 2005 to 22.4% in 2016. The percentages of the avoidance number of geological disasters and avoidance economic losses are about 0.7% and 1.5% annually perceptively using regression equation. Through the analysis of the long term dynamic monitoring results of Chinese geological disasters, it is found that Chinese disaster prevention and mitigation has made remarkable progress.