复杂性科学视角下的土地利用/覆被变化

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)是当前全球变化研究的热点问题之一，它既是全球变化的重要原因之一，一定程度上又是全球变化的反映。土地利用／覆被变化和全球变化之间存在着极为复杂的反馈联系，片面的研究方法难以从整体上把握问题的本质。该文从复杂性科学的角度出发，分析土地利用/覆被变化的复杂性，认为驱动因素的多样性、系统要素作用的非线性和多方向性、时空异质性以及时空尺度多变性是土地利用／覆被变化复杂性的集中表现。实际研究中应注意把复杂性当作复杂性，通过定性与定量结合、微观研究与宏观研究结合等途径开展多学科综合研究，全面揭示土地利用/覆被变化问题的本质。

Discussion on the Complexity in Land Use and Land Cover Change Based on Complexity Science

Land use and land cover change plays an increasingly important role in current global environment change,and has become one of the hot issues of global change over the past 15 years.It is widely agreed that there exists extremely complicated feedback relationship between land use/ cover change and its driving forces.Traditional researches often focus on some aspects of the change and do not treat it as an integrated one.As a result,it is difficult for human being to unveil and catch up with the nature of the change,and work out an effective resolution to the problem.At the beginning of the paper,the author reviews the definitions of complexity and complexity science,and also how to distinguish complexity in scientific research.Then from the angle of complexity science,the complexity in land use and land cover change is analyzed.It is concluded that the complexity of land use and land cover change is strongly characterized by its astonishing diversity of driving forces,non-linearity and multi-direction of feedback,heterogeneity in time and space,and also various scaling.In the end,it is suggested that land use and land cover change can be better understood with the help of theory and methodology of complexity science and through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methodology,micro-process and macro-pattern,and also the coordinate hard-working of scientists from different fields.Although complexity science shows considerable potential in resolving problems resulted from land change and land cover from regional to global scale,it does not mean that conventional theory and methodology is useless.On the contrary,they should and can benefit each other.